gold seems to be suggesting we may go over the cliff...

SPY vs. GLD over the last few weeks....

The only cliff that matters ...

The Bernank is trying desperately to figure out a way to push the Russel 2000 higher without ramping energy prices but as can be seen in the chart  BNO (brent) and RUT-x (Russel 2000) are not playing nice.  Looks like a flag (flying at half mast) is about to end with a break out higher which will crush the working fool just as taxes are about to get jacked up his ass...  time has run out on the fiat games.

Late 07 vs. now in terms of RSI momo... kinda freaky

GLD vs. all else...

If you measure from when all was blissful in the world 05/06 and through all the manic post crisis fed printing. The one asset that appears bubblish is gold when compared to everything else that should have been impacted the same way as a result of the fed desperation,  i.e. the CRB (crbq), Russel 2000 (rut-x), copper (jjc), gasoline (uga)  If you use debt markets as your fortune teller (despite fed molestations) one would have to assume that gold has gotten ahead of itself...

AAPL looking like it wants to stall out at it's .618 fib line measured from it's channel stop..

I prefer to measure from the channel top (not that stop running momo chasing nominal top) when looking for possible limits to counter trend moves.  I'm thinking AAPL is ready for that 470ish price area in tandem with SPX 1250ish and gold getting slapped down. Until at least we see obvious signs of the fed printing press kicking in....

Copper not really trying to feel the luv gold seems to be feeling

looking at JJC with GLD in the background.....

Gold which has been front running everything the fed does..

and this 1750 area which is the 2/3's fib line and the top of a corrective flag should be the end of the run higher and I expect will roll over and plunge in a C wave like move which lead stocks lower...

gap in AAPL has closed...

now looking for a retest of the lows... actually think buy stops below the recent low will get flushed...something in the area of 460-470ish..

With the 10 year note out of the picture UGA fills the void

UGA  (gasoline by proxy)  is taking over the role that long rates use to hold and moves inverse to the feds downside manipulation of interest rates. The lower they push down rates the higher prices to be paid for gasoline as a sort of natural reaction or pressure relief valve on the system.  Now with the elections over pressure on the fed to distort energy prices out of the way, UGA can find it's natural price in the mid 70ies... or so I'm thinking.

Interesting fib time relationships (marked from the tech top)

Very interesting fib time action going on when measured from the tech bubble top to the 02 bottom and now ending in a terminal wedge that is already broken..  and the cherry is that divergent RSI sell signal

VIX kiss line

There's been a pattern the last 6 times the cboe VIX kissed it's apparent touchstone line which 6 out of 6 times has triggered a sell off in stocks. I believe this latest kiss is marking the beginning of the next decline with a sort of rounding bottom which still allows room to bounce to 1400 to 1420ish on the /ES before the 2nd and nastiest leg of the decline commences.

Looks like a1400 to 1425 upside pop on the /ES before new lows..

So far I see no indication that we've bottomed out in a way that builds a sustainable base that the nyfed can commence it's upside skew/molestation. One observation is climax selling volume as the chart below shows there hasn't been any yet though cycle timing wise you might expect one beginning any moment...perhaps a test of 1400 is needed...

Long term XOM chart

I'm looking for 65ish in XOM over the coming year for the time being via it's RSI divergent sell signal. Also interesting how should that target be hit the much longer term chart picture starts to take on the potential for a double top if 56 gets taken out...

If the VIX chart were sheet music...

You might expect some crescendo action culminating with a loud "crash" cymbal

In my bones I feel a crash coming very soon.  As I stare at the Russel 2000 I can not imagine any other scenario short of a massively bullish  break out to new highs (which I don't see happening) so that leaves a sudden and violent discontinuous move price wise. Any normal pull back from here the way the chart has drawn itself just doesn't seem possible visually. That only leaves a sharp crack lower something in the order of what a scribbled on the chart. Nothing scientific here, no system, this is just a result of drawing the weekly chart with various outcomes and posting the one that seems to make the most sense in a time and space  kinda way....